The UK entertainment and media market will grow from £54 billion to £65.5 billion over the next four years – but news and information publishers are going to see hardly a dime of that increase.
PwC’s latest Entertainment and Media report covering 2013-2017 says B2B publishing, newspapers and consumer magazines will see a net fall in revenues over the next four years. PwC’s full figures for 2008 to 2013 do not paint a pretty picture.
According to these figures, between 2013 and 2017 the industry will lose this much in revenue:
— 0.5 percent for newspapers
— 1 percent for consumer magazines
— 2 percent for trade magazines
That’s not catastrophic. But compared to other parts of the media and entertainment ecosystem, it’s awful, as the recent past and forecast future of TV and videogames show:
That flat revenue forecast for publisher revenues masks a huge amount of variation between revenue streams:
As you can see, PwC predicts the one publishing revenue stream that is going to see good growth across all three sectors is digital circulation. However growth rate is coming from a very low base – many consumer mags and B2B publishers are still tentatively launching mobile and tablet products.
PwC also doesn’t expect the digital revolution to play out all that quickly. Digital circulation and advertising currently only accounts for around 10 percent of all revenue.
In four years time that will have increased, but only to a bit more than 20 percent.
Other digitally disrupted sectors are changing far more quickly. PwC predicts that by 2017, 44 percent of consumer book publishing will be digital, as will 61 percent of recorded music publishing. These sectors aren’t growing rapidly, at a CAGR of 0.6 and 1.2 percent respectively – but at least they aren’t shrinking.
Maybe these trends aren’t news to you. But if proof was needed, PwC’s stats show that a) you can’t bank on the economy returning to growth to bring in extra cash and b) print’s future is one of continued, slow decline as online continues to grow.